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Bet And Play Your Way To The Top With Spreadex – Most sports bettors have heard of expected value, but few are aware of its true meaning. Even very few people apply the concept to their betting.

Here’s everything you need to know about expected value and why it’s the most important factor in your sports betting ROI.

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At its simplest, expected value in sports betting is a way of measuring the difference in probability between a bettor’s expectations — and the sportsbook’s.

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Oddsmakers determine their odds through betting lines, which bettors determine all money lines, point spreads, totals and any other type of bet. Almost all legal American sportsbooks exclusively use what are called American odds, in which positive numbers (such as +100, +222, etc.) are assigned to the underdog and negative numbers (-120 , -155, etc.) are given. to favorites.

In this system, the line number increases as the probability of winning decreases, and the line number decreases as the probability of winning increases.

This means that a +100 underdog is more likely to win than a +240 underdog (according to the book). Conversely, a -190 favorite is more likely to win than a -120 favorite.

For example, if a book assigns a team—let’s say the Seahawks against the Patriots—a +100 line, that’s a 50% chance of winning, or a coin flip.

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If a bettor believes the Seahawks have a greater than 50% chance of winning this game, they will assign a positive expected value (+EV). If the bettor believes the team has less than a 50% chance of winning, they will assign a negative expected value (-EV).

The weighting of bets by expected value gives quick bettors a fundamental advantage over most other bettors and is one of their few edges against sportsbooks.

A common mistake made by a sports bettor is rummaging through the board at the last minute, or looking at the NFL odds on Sunday morning, hoping to pick the day’s winners. Those looking for expected value, or +EV, consider the lines (and, by extension, probability) oddsmakers give each game, often as early as possible, and try to find out. whether a bet is overvalued or undervalued.

The best NFL bettors make a habit of finding value early in the week. As of Thursday, oddsmakers have adjusted their lines, and in a market as efficient as the NFL, value bets are only available for a short time while the market rises.

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Positive expected value betting is a fundamental method for sports betting, which the general bettor, often referred to as “the public”, does not use enough.

A typical bettor is like a roulette player who hopes that their suit will be called. A + EV Beater is a stockbroker who wants to sell high and buy low.

As much as sports bettors overestimate their betting skills, it is impossible to win long term by just hoping to find a winner. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas (and now more than a dozen other states) have spent decades reviewing millions of sporting events. They use the best oddsmakers, programs and algorithms to find the most efficient lines. Even the most profitable bettors “only” win about 55%-56% of bets.

There’s a reason why many sports books, whether in Las Vegas, New Jersey, Illinois, Colorado, or Pennsylvania, offer betting bonuses, free drinks and other perks to their customers. They will refund your money.

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Almost every retail and online sportsbook charges at least a 5 percent fee (4.54% to be exact) on the betting line, also known as the incentive or “vig.” For example, if a sportsbook gives both teams a 50% chance of winning, the lines for both teams are -110 (52.38% expected probability) instead of +100. This means that bookies are paying what is essentially an additional 5% levy on each bet, win or lose. A bettor needs to win 52.38% of his bets.

All that being said, sportsbooks historically have a profit margin of between 5% and 8% on the total amount bet, meaning sports betting players are the best at winning any form of legal gambling. provides an opportunity Some sports bettors make significant money over the long term, but Smart Bets can, at the very least, keep bettors from playing for fun.

To do this, a bettor must think seriously. Predictive value betting does not guarantee long-term success, but gambling without EV considerations ensures long-term failure.

To use another analogy, a +EV bettor is like a smart supermarket shopper. A smart shopper notices when the prices of an item are higher than the previous visit and looks for alternatives accordingly. In effect, the same buyer buys a discounted item that he would not otherwise have purchased.

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Sports betting works the same way. Instead of betting on a team that has a high probability of winning but requires a large price to bet, +EV bettors shop the online sports betting industry to see what they think will happen. And find the biggest difference between the book, by your betting line, will mean.

Taking a typical sports betting example, let’s say a sportsbook lists the Detroit Lions as -150 moneyline favorites over the Chicago Bears. A typical bettor thinks the Lions will win, so they bet on Detroit. A quick bettor thinks the sportsbook line has a 60% chance of the Lions winning. Although he also believes the Lions will win, he thinks it’s much less likely than the book suggests. In this case, they look to the bears, who are +130 moneyline underdogs, which translates to a 43.48% chance of winning.

Even though the +EV bettor thinks the Lions are the better team – and even though they seem to have a higher chance of winning – they think the Bears have a higher chance of winning at 43.58%.

Price is with the Bears, so +EV puts the batter over Chicago. Sometimes +EV can be found during the game, as bettors look for edges in sportsbooks that offer bets on the game. In short, expected value bettors do not bet on who will win, but on what scenario.

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; A +EV bettor will sometimes bet on a team he expects to lose, if that’s where the value is.

Taking odds from a betting line may seem like a complicated formula, but it’s actually the simplest part of EV betting.

For American odds, if the book line is a positive value, the formula calls for dividing 100 by the line number plus 100. it seems:

So if the book game line is +110, divide 110 by 110 plus 100. Bettors must remember to add 100 first in addition to the line. It will look like this:

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It is just as easy to change the negative possibilities. This time, it’s the line plus 100 divided by the line. it seems:

For example, using -190 would require the following. Again, the formula calls for adding the two halves of the denominator (or the other half of the equation) before dividing the numerator:

From there a bettor cannot predict whether a team will win, lose or cover, but by weighing the probability of such an event occurring against the probability given by the book.

Bettors may notice the odds in the example above do not add up to 100%. In the Bears-Lions example above on the page, Chicago (+130 / 43.48% chance to win) and Detroit (-150 / 60% chance to win) have a combined percentage of 103.48%.

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Or if you look at the “V” bet example from earlier, both teams have -110 each assigned line, or a 52.38 percent chance. This is due to Wag, which applies to almost every bet.

These seemingly small fees add up over the long term, making it difficult for sports bettors to break even on low profits. A true bet, like a coin toss, should be +100 heads, +100 tails. Instead, sportsbooks list Super Bowl coin toss bets at -110 for both heads and tails.

Because Super Bowl coin toss bettors are roughly split between heads and tails, the sportsbook is essentially guaranteed to win regardless of the outcome. In particular, since the probability of both heads or tails is 50%, and the sportsbooks “charge” 52.38% for the bet, this is a good example of an -EV bet.

More traditional sports betting works the same way. If, for example, a book has a roughly equal number of bettors betting that the favorite will cover and the favorite not, it is guaranteed to make money.

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Of course, not every game bet is a coin toss. These are the ones +EV bettors are looking for, coldly and patiently waiting for the batting line that doesn’t show up.

Unfortunately, bookmakers have no sure way of knowing which bets have a positive expected value. Some bettors rely on their algorithms, others keep an eye on breaking news, and some have acquired at least a semi-reliable feel for the market and often know when to “buy low.” When the time comes, there is a chance to defeat them. The finished line.

As mentioned earlier, books set their lines based on decades of experience and significant financial and human capital resources. A sportsbook operator uses this vast intellectual and financial wealth to create a line that the average bettor cannot actually replicate with nearly the same accuracy. For most sports bettors, that’s it.

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