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But +EV betting is a great way to not only learn the ins and outs of the basic math behind sports betting, but also make some money in the process.

EV betting isn’t about what you think will happen, it’s about the advantage you have over the limited betting odds using the lines and information the sportsbooks already give you.

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The best way to think of a vig is the amount a sportsbook expects to make on any given bet.

And this is important because to get the true probability of the event we need to remove the vig.

If we flip a coin with the sports book, theoretically they will get -110 heads and -110 tails. In the long run, we will always lose no matter what.

A probability of -110 on each side would mean that the 0-vig line is money or (50% probability). This 0-vig line corresponds to a 50% chance of tossing a coin. The difference between odds of -110 and fair odds of +100 is vig.

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Vig equals the bet payout minus the 0-vig line multiplied by the odds of winning:

There are 0-vig calculators online that will help you convert the coefficients to 0-vig lines (most of them are not perfect, but they will get you close enough most of the time).

EV stands for Expected Value – in other words, the gap between the actual odds of something happening and the odds published by the bookmaker.

Expected value, as I use it, is always based on reliable lines from sportsbooks, not what I or another model thinks will happen.

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Tossing a coin is always the simplest example – the fair odds of a coin flip are 50/50 or +100.

If we make 100 of these 10% EV bets, we expect to make $1000 on those 100 bets.

EV is not what you think will happen, but the advantage you have over the odds is measured using Vegas lines.

While getting +120 with one coin flip may not seem like much, in the long run with hundreds of +120 coin flips we expect (and do with sports betting + EV) to make more money without risk.

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Although many people can dive into certain matches, the latest form or the weather, we allow the experts who set the lines and the smart people who bet on those lines to do our job and think that these lines fully reflect the limited chance of the event. it will happen.

This is the technical definition—for our purposes, I like to think of it as the probability that one outcome (in our case, a bet) will occur given another outcome.

My favorite example is the Boost Barstool used for running called the Pirates booty. They increased the chances of Pirates losing and falling under the team count – obviously the more Pirates fall under the count, the more likely they are to lose. These two results are highly correlated.

Here is my analysis of this May 2021 round and how I viewed the rating scale (summary below if you don’t want to read the whole thing):

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As promised, I went in to do a little more testing for you guys, and the results are really strong. I’ve been using the lines on a daily basis, but apparently I’m going to start updating them daily. There are 3 ways (imo) to best rate Pirates under 3.5 runs and play lines https://t.co/SYwYIedeNy — The Promoguy (@ThePromoguy123) May 12, 2021

Using the Pirates’ odds of under 3.5 runs and the Reds’ money line for this game, the three methods described above gave us fair odds of -103, +122, and +110, respectively.

So, although the uncorrelated 0-vig line (red and Pirates money line definition below) was +190, the actual odds were much lower, pushing this to a solid +EV bet.

My tweet above had the odds giving +122 fair odds after correlations (+190 fair without correlations meaning the Pirates are very unlikely to score more than 3.5 runs if they knew they would lose) at +21.62% EV from -Barna seat offered +170.

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Variance is the difference between results and expected results. The difference is larger when the sample size is smaller.

The image below shows five different simulations (shown in different colors) of different coin flips, all at EV +10%. You can see below with a small sample size that +EV does not always equal the return, but that with a large enough sample bet size we get a return that is very close to the expected return. This is evident in the comparison of 500 and 1000 coins.

The main factor that determines profitability with a large sample size will be the EV or coin payout, not luck. However, we can see that with small sample sizes, the EV is less important, the variance is much higher, and luck becomes the main factor.

With five spins, the main factor that determines the profit is how well the coin flips, not the payout if you win. This is because winning three coins versus two is a 150% difference and is easily explained by the luck of the draw.

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It is very rare to see 300 out of 500 flips in your favor or 200 out of 500 flips against you.

For us, this means that in the short term, bettors should expect hot and cold streaks and results to differ from their expected returns (good and bad), but in the long term, your profit/loss should be very similar to your EV (as seen in the simulation of 500 /1000 coup).

Sports translation: we bet most of the raise with a margin of around 10% (similar to the charts). Over the course of the day/week/even month, our results may vary. But in the long run, our results will be less volatile

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